Parcel Monitor Predicts a 15% to 17% Surge in U.S. Holiday Sales

Parcel Monitor’s latest report projects that U.S. e-commerce sales will rise up to 15-17% during peak season sales this year, together with rising consumer expectations

NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — In its annual peak season forecast, leading e-commerce logistics data provider Parcel Monitor anticipates a substantial upswing in retail sales for the impending holiday season.

The U.S. e-commerce market is poised to conclude peak season this year with projected parcel volume growth as high as 17% (within a range of 3% to 17%) as compared to the same time last year. Furthermore, Parcel Monitor foresees sales soaring by approximately 42% during the Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) period in contrast to the pre-BFCM period.

Along with the expected surge in e-commerce holiday sales, consumer expectations are also on the rise. A 2023 study done by Parcel Monitor and Rakuten Insight Global revealed that 90.5% of U.S. consumers are willing to switch to a competitor brand after encountering just one instance of subpar customer service. This growing emphasis on superior service extends to the realm of shipping and last-mile delivery. Other key findings of the survey are:

  • 52% of U.S. consumers ranked cost of delivery as the most important factor of the delivery experience.
  • 68.9% want to know when their online order arrives via estimated delivery dates.
  • Only 31.5% of consumers are willing to tolerate a 3-4 days delay from these estimated dates.

Yet, as the holiday season draws near, retailers are confronted with the dual challenge of meeting customer expectations and managing the logistical challenges that come hand-in-hand during this period.

Parcel Monitor’s data shows that 77% of shipment delays in the U.S. during peak season last year were caused by carrier issues. The average time from order pick-up to delivery during Black Friday/Cyber Monday 2022 was 7.5 days, with delivery companies taking 40% of that time to pick up orders from shippers. As a result, choosing the right logistics partners to guarantee timely and complete deliveries will be critical for a successful holiday season.

“Parcel Monitor’s carrier performance data serves as a compass for retailers worldwide. Thanks to our insights, we can identify delivery issues and help shippers to make informed decisions about their logistics partnerships” said Dana von der Heide, Founder & Chief Customer Officer of Parcel Perform. “In an era of heightened consumer expectations, every data point becomes a strategic advantage, helping companies not only meet demand during peak seasons but also lay the foundation for year-round excellence.”

To learn more, read Parcel Monitor’s Peak Season Report for 2023.


Parcel Monitor gathers billions of anonymized data points from the millions of e-commerce parcels tracked by consumers in over 170+ countries.This data is analyzed, augmented, and subject to rigorous data quality tests to ensure that the insights accurately reflect the realities of the global logistics and e-commerce industry.

For this peak season analysis, the ‘Pre-BFCM’ period is defined as 3 weeks leading up to the week of BFCM (i.e. 30 Oct 2023 to 20 Nov 2023), and ‘BFCM’ as 3 weeks starting from 20 Nov 2023 to 11 Dec 2023.

About Parcel Monitor

Parcel Monitor is a trusted source of e-commerce logistics data insights for professionals. Leveraging on proprietary data and technology, Parcel Monitor captures consumer trends, provides market visibility and derives actionable insights while fostering collaboration across the entire e-commerce and logistics industry.

Obtain customized insights on e-commerce logistics at

For media inquiries:
Jiamin Han
Lead, Parcel Monitor
+65 9737 0246

SOURCE Parcel Monitor